Hugo Chavez is in trouble.
The obvious question is why Chavez paid the FARC $300 million for the release of the hostages last month? This “ransom” payment severed two purposes. It bought Chavez some much-needed positive international PR. For a brief moment, he could grab international headlines for something positive. It also gave Chavez an easy way to pay back the FARC for the $150,000 they “lent” him back in 1992 when he was sitting in jail for a failed coup d’état. That’s a 60% annual ROI for the FARC for the past 16 years. Quite an investment!
Now that Colombian officials possess the FARC’s computer records showing a long trail of Chavista FARC support, Chavez has reason to be nervous. His Venezuelan support base is poorer, hungrier, and getting tired of Hugo’s false promises. Now, they have a smoking gun – their red-beret wearing, outspoken leader has been a pillar of support for the feared and hated FARC. The biggest danger is that Chavez will do something stupid in a desperate attempt to show strength.
As I write, he is moving troops to the Colombian border. This should be interesting.